MQ 3505 · TPA → MIA

took off 2:22 PM ET · landed 2:59 PM ET (scheduled 1:16 PM ET → 2:26 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3505 · TPA → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?