MQ 3534 · DCA → RDU

departs 8:21 AM ET · arrives 9:37 AM ET

Your aircraft is N237NN (E170), coming in as MQ 4035 from CMH: in the air, landing about 7:58 AM ET, 17 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

RDU (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3534 · DCA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?