OH 5301 · TYS → DCA

departs 11:31 AM ET · arrives 1:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5301 · TYS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?