YX 4340 · DCA → IND

took off 6:36 AM ET · expected to land 8:02 AM ET (scheduled 6:24 AM ET → 8:25 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IND?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into IND at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

IND (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,767 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4340 · DCA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?