YX 4398 · LGA → DCA

departs 5:09 PM ET · arrives 6:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4398 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?