YX 4491 · BNA → DCA

departs 6:18 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling8,927 ft Visibility9.26829 mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4491 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?