YX 4624 · RDU → DCA

departs 3:16 PM ET · arrives 4:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4624 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?