YX 4648 · BNA → DCA

took off 7:11 AM CT · landed 9:25 AM ET (scheduled 5:51 AM CT → 8:53 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling7,968 ft Visibility9.04 mi Precip0.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,840 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4648 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?