YX 4742 · SYR → DCA

departs 5:27 PM ET · arrives 7:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Other factors

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SYR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4742 · SYR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?