YX 4744 · DCA → AVL

departs 5:42 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AVL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precip0.07 in

AVL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4744 · DCA → AVL

Odds over time

How late will it get to AVL?