AA 1015 · CHS → DCA

took off 6:03 AM ET · expected to land 7:07 AM ET (scheduled 5:56 AM ET → 7:35 AM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at CHS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from CHS are usually not late

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1015 · CHS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?