AA 1478 · CLT → IAH

took off 3:52 PM ET · expected to land 5:07 PM CT (scheduled 12:19 PM ET → 2:06 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1478 · CLT → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?