AA 2236 · MIA → PHL

departs 9:46 PM ET · arrives 12:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2236 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?