AA 2973 · BDL → DCA

departs 5:32 AM ET · arrives 7:09 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BDL are usually not late

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.37 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2973 · BDL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?