AA 3264 · DCA → MSY

departs 11:27 AM ET · arrives 1:22 PM CT

Your aircraft is N755US (A319), coming in as AA 1012 from ORD: landed 11:57 AM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3264 · DCA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?