AA 421 · NAS → DCA

took off 12:35 PM EST · landed 3:12 PM ET (scheduled 11:47 AM EST → 2:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

NAS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DCA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 421 · NAS → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?