AA 541 · MIA → SJU

departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM AT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ SJU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 541 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?