MQ 4007 · MIA → OCJ

took off 10:18 AM ET · expected to land 11:33 AM EST (scheduled 10:10 AM ET → 12:09 PM EST)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OCJ more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OCJ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Arrivals into OCJ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

OCJ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4007 · MIA → OCJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to OCJ?