MQ 4008 · JAX → MIA

departs 7:01 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from JAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4008 · JAX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?