OH 5315 · DCA → ILM

departs 9:59 AM ET · arrives 11:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.89 in

ILM (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5315 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?