OH 5315 · ILM → DCA

departs 12:04 PM ET · arrives 1:34 PM ET

Your aircraft is N546FF (CRJ7).

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ 12pm departures from ILM are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5315 · ILM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?