OH 5613 · PVD → DCA

departs 8:34 AM ET · arrives 10:19 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at PVD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.55 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5613 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?