WN 3128 · MCO → DCA

took off 3:07 PM ET · landed 5:01 PM ET (scheduled 12:27 PM ET → 2:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3128 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?