WN 978 · MSY → DCA

departs 9:26 AM CT · arrives 1:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 978 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?