YX 4408 · DCA → BOS

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

91% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
33%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.89 in

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4408 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?