YX 4458 · DCA → STL

departs 8:11 AM ET · arrives 9:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

STL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4458 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?