YX 4727 · DCA → CVG

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.45 in

CVG (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4727 · DCA → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?