YX 4744 · AVL → DCA

departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM ET

Your aircraft is N119HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4744 from DCA: landed 8:21 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

AVL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DCA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4744 · AVL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?