AA 1409 · CLT → ORD

took off 7:40 AM ET · landed 8:11 AM CT (scheduled 7:29 AM ET → 8:42 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1409 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?