MQ 3851 · ELH → MIA

departs 3:56 PM EST · arrives 5:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELH

↓ 3pm departures from ELH are usually not late

Weather at each end

ELH (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3851 · ELH → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?