MQ 3961 · XSC → MIA

took off 1:16 PM EST · expected to land 2:49 PM ET (scheduled 1:12 PM EST → 3:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XSC

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

XSC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3961 · XSC → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?