OH 5588 · OKC → DCA

took off 3:24 PM CT · expected to land 6:36 PM ET (scheduled 3:07 PM CT → 7:03 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5588 · OKC → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?