WN 4161 · STL → LGA

departs 10:31 AM CT · arrives 2:01 PM ET

Your aircraft is N8815L (B38M), coming in as WN 1954 from DAL: landed 10:12 AM CT.

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4161 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?