Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4161 · STL → LGA
departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 3:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sun 11/8 22%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 42%
Thu 11/12 50%
Fri 11/13 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.