YX 4617 · MHT → DCA

took off 6:09 AM ET · expected to land 7:27 AM ET (scheduled 5:56 AM ET → 8:01 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MHT that day

↑ MHT is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MHT are usually not late

Weather at each end

MHT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4617 · MHT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?