Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1126 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 1126 · MIA → TPA

departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1126 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?