Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 606 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 8

AA 606 · DFW → SAT

departs 9:54 PM CT · arrives 11:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.9 mi Precip1.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 606 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?