Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 196 · DAL → SAT
departs 6:03 PM CT · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 76%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 33%
Thu 11/12 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.9 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip 1.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.