Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 2474 · DAL → MCI
departs 6:43 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 35%
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 27%
Thu 11/12 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.