WN 3139 · MSY → AUS

departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3139 · MSY → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?