WN 3214 · OAK → LAS

departs 9:26 PM PT · arrives 11:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

57% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceiling8,133 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3214 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?