Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 3214 · OAK → LAS
departs 9:25 PM PT · arrives 10:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.