Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 3857 · SFO → SAN
departs 6:27 PM PT · arrives 8:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 42%
Thu 11/12 47%
Fri 11/13 60%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±13 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.