Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 3857 · SFO → SAN
departs 6:25 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 54%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 47%
Fri 11/13 60%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.