Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4206 · STL → TPA
departs 7:57 PM CT · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 22%
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.