Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4206 · STL → TPA
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/8 31%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.