Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4476 · PHX → SEA
departs 6:39 PM MT · arrives 8:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 50%
Tue 11/10 37%
Wed 11/11 46%
Thu 11/12 56%
Fri 11/13 56%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.