Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4476
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9
WN 4476 · PHX → SEA
departs 6:40 PM MT · arrives 8:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 44%
Mon 11/9
Tue 11/10 37%
Wed 11/11 46%
Thu 11/12 56%
Fri 11/13 56%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.