WN 471 · ONT → OAK

departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 9:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

ONT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,300 ft Visibility7.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 471 · ONT → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?