Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 2, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 9 Tomorrow
WN 471 · ONT → OAK
departs 8:26 PM PT · arrives 9:54 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Mon 11/9
Thu 11/12 38%
Fri 11/13 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.